EMV and ETV
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) and Expected Time Value (ETV) are the two core calculated metrics in Risk Companion. They combine probability with impact to produce a single risk-weighted exposure figure.
What are EMV and ETV
EMV multiplies probability by financial impact to give a dollar value representing risk-weighted financial exposure. ETV applies the same formula to schedule impact, producing a time-based exposure value.
Both metrics update automatically whenever you save a new assessment. Risk Companion uses the most recent probability assessment when calculating EMV and ETV for each impact perspective.
Formulas
Expected Monetary Value
EMV = (Probability / 100) x Financial Impact
Expected Time Value
ETV = (Probability / 100) x Schedule Impact
For triangular estimates, Risk Companion uses the average of Min, Mode, and Max as the impact value. See estimation methods for details on how this feeds Monte Carlo simulation.
Worked example
A supply chain disruption risk has been assessed with 60% probability and $350,000 financial impact.
(60 / 100) x $350,000 = $210,000
This means the risk-weighted financial exposure is $210,000. If you also assessed schedule impact at 42 days, the ETV would be (60 / 100) x 42 = 25.2 days.
Comparing risks with EMV
EMV lets you compare risks on a common scale regardless of their individual probability and impact profiles. A low-probability, high-impact risk may carry more exposure than a likely but low-impact one.
Risk A
80% x $100,000
Risk B
20% x $500,000
Risk A is four times more likely, but Risk B carries $20,000 more EMV. Prioritise based on exposure, not probability alone.
Why EMV and ETV matter
- Enable apples-to-apples comparison of risks with different profiles
- Help prioritise mitigation investments based on exposure reduction
- Support portfolio-level risk aggregation and reporting
- Provide the basis for contingency reserve calculations
- Feed into Monte Carlo simulation for probabilistic analysis
Trend tracking
Risk Companion stores every assessment in the history, so you can track how EMV and ETV change over time. Use the trend data to demonstrate that your mitigation actions are reducing exposure.
Example EMV trend
| Date | Probability | Financial | EMV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15 | 75% | $400,000 | $300,000 |
| Mar 1 | 65% | $380,000 | $247,000 |
| May 15 | 60% | $350,000 | $210,000 |
| Aug 1 | 40% | $200,000 | $80,000 |
Result: EMV reduced by $220,000 (73%) over 7 months through systematic mitigation.
See also
- Monte Carlo simulation — aggregate EMV and ETV across a project with probabilistic analysis
- Dashboard types — view EMV trends on the Project dashboard